A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
